Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b6…e069 politics 11 markets active 1d ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,764 (-18%) realized −$1,328 · open −$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$895per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,539
7 days−$2,496
14 days−$2,496
30 days−$2,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% −$1,064
other 3% −$177
sports 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 14% 14% -37.5%
≤30d 7 -11.7% -20.1% 14% 14% -37.5%
≤90d 10 -19.9% -27.5% 20% 20% -38.7%
all 10 -19.9% -27.5% 20% 20% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 20% -38.7%
10% -34.4% 20% -44.6%
15% -40.8% 10% -49.9%
20% -46.6% 10% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
22.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$353 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized−$436
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage64d
Avg bet$895
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $483 $67 −$416 (-86%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-89%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Man City or PSG advance to the finals of the Champions League? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Who will win the 2021 Peruvian Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,830 −$1,848 -101%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $567 −$101 -18%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $12 −$4 -38%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $5,222 −$566 -11%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $319 −$34 -11%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $39 +$77 +196%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $81 +$27 +33%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $270 −$50 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $404 34h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $3 35h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $57 35h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $4 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $64 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $17 38h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $2 41h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $22 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $248 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $36 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $175 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $9 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $58 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $32 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $18 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $259 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $11 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 19¢ $4 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 19¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.58 · official $68.59 (match) · 416 history records