Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b5…d8db crypto 97 markets active 14h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$234 (-14%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$79
weather 47% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -75.3% -77.7% 0% 0% -77.7%
≤30d 97 -15.7% -23.8% 58% 36% -26.4%
≤90d 97 -15.7% -23.8% 58% 36% -26.4%
all 97 -15.7% -23.8% 58% 36% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 36% -26.4%
10% -31.1% 27% -33.4%
15% -37.7% 18% -39.9%
20% -43.8% 9% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage27d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $99 −$75 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $37 −$22 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $33 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 06 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $158 −$56 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 +$30 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $28 +$50 +181%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $129 −$62 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 29 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? May 29 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 5¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 19¢ $99 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records