Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24b5…a92c sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$803 (-72%) realized −$804 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$802
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -78.3% -80.3% 12% 0% -97.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.3% 0% -97.0%
10% -82.2% 0% -97.3%
15% -83.9% 0% -97.6%
20% -85.5% 0% -97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -103% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$115 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$804
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage176d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $246 −$127 -52%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $409 −$409 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jan 01 $63 −$17 -27%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Trail Blazers Dec 24 $6 −$5 -80%
Pistons vs. Kings Dec 24 $6 $0 +0%
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio Dec 24 $56 −$44 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $121 1h
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 18¢ $11 31d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 19¢ $110 31d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano SELL Carano 18¢ $110 31d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 20¢ $3 31d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Diaz 41¢ $204 31d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 20¢ $102 31d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 20¢ $20 31d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 8¢ $10 128d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 15¢ $50 128d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 19¢ $100 128d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 34¢ $249 128d
Miami vs. Ohio State BUY Ohio State 50¢ $25 167d
Miami vs. Ohio State SELL Ohio State 49¢ $25 167d
Miami vs. Ohio State BUY Ohio State 41¢ $21 167d
Miami vs. Ohio State SELL Ohio State 41¢ $21 167d
Miami vs. Ohio State BUY Ohio State 33¢ $17 167d
Rockets vs. Clippers BUY Rockets 13¢ $1 175d
Magic vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 8¢ $1 175d
Magic vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 40¢ $6 175d
Pistons vs. Kings SELL Pistons 99¢ $6 175d
Pistons vs. Kings BUY Pistons 99¢ $6 175d
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio SELL Ohio 99¢ $6 175d
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio BUY Ohio 97¢ $6 175d
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio SELL UNLV Runnin 7¢ $6 175d
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio BUY UNLV Runnin 60¢ $30 175d
UNLV Runnin' vs. Ohio BUY UNLV Runnin 59¢ $20 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.96 · official $129.68 · 27 history records