Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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24 0x24af…be4c crypto 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%316W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$40
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$7
politics 5% −$17
finance 4% −$17
other 2% +$2
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 327 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 327 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.3%
all 327 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses316 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)327 / 333
History coverage9d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 90¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 90¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
BNB Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 90¢ $15 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 11h
BNB Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.58 · official $113.76 (match) · 664 history records