Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
24 0x24ae…d35b sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+16%) realized +$10 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$77
other 19% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 56% +3.6%
≤30d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 56% +3.6%
≤90d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 56% +3.6%
all 9 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 56% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 56% +3.6%
10% -10.6% 44% -6.3%
15% -19.2% 33% -15.4%
20% -27.1% 22% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 36¢ 100¢ $30 $83 +$53 (+178%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 43¢ 75¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+74%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Under 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $7 +$3 +34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$11 +124%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$34 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.49 · official $211.49 (match) · 21 history records