Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x24ae…4c80 sports 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$18,306 (+25%) realized +$18,306 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate75%117W / 38L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day90.5pace
Fees−$890est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,954
7 days+$12,952
14 days+$17,265
30 days+$19,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$15,018
other 32% +$4,340
crypto 2% +$58
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +90.3% +72.2% 81% 57% +27.1%
≤30d 155 +80.2% +63.1% 75% 41% +14.0%
≤90d 155 +80.2% +63.1% 75% 41% +14.0%
all 155 +80.2% +63.1% 75% 41% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.1% 41% +14.0%
10% ← realistic here +47.4% 26% +3.1%
15% +33.2% 18% -6.9%
20% +20.1% 14% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$553) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +104% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$52 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.75 per $1 lost it wins $10.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18,306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses117 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$890
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage21d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day90.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $528 +$125 +24%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,795 +$2,168 +121%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $18 −$6 -34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $450 +$191 +42%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $170 +$46 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $185 +$14 +7%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $190 +$1,121 +590%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $1,370 +$575 +42%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $485 +$848 +175%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $1,210 +$144 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $951 +$288 +30%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 18 $1,266 +$39 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6,450 −$422 -6%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $42 +$11 +27%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $383 +$163 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $1,087 +$519 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $634 +$107 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $391 +$5 +1%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $145 +$19 +13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $58 $0 -1%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $286 −$14 -5%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,316 +$21 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $285 +$527 +185%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $379 +$22 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $204 +$6 +3%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $246 +$331 +135%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 −$14 -83%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$4 +74%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $395 +$222 +56%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $1,805 +$220 +12%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $77 +$14 +18%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $791 +$2,177 +275%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,544 +$3,460 +136%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $208 +$9 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $359 +$64 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $625 +$46 +7%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $553 −$8 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $347 +$61 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $683 −$28 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $465 −$124 -27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $667 +$61 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $723 +$23 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $509 +$654 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $558 −$472 -85%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $406 +$107 +26%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $105 +$23 +22%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $708 +$21 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 20¢ $9 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 32¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 32¢ $18 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 79¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 84¢ $91 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 84¢ $97 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 81¢ $41 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 79¢ $213 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 77¢ $85 1h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 98¢ $2,341 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 98¢ $6 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 86¢ $48 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 86¢ $5 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 86¢ $500 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $70 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 67¢ $500 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $187 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 67¢ $29 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $298 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $298 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $298 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $298 2h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $298 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 63¢ $641 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $76 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $64 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $88 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 1955 history records