Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24ad…cf9f sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$34 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$32
sports 25% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 4 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 50% -12.6%
≤90d 4 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 50% -12.6%
all 4 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 50% -12.6%
10% -39.5% 50% -20.9%
15% -45.3% 25% -28.6%
20% -50.7% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 57¢ $89 $57 −$32 (-35%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 82¢ 80¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 +$8 +73%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $37 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 4¢ $1 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 4¢ $1 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 4¢ $0 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 4¢ $1 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 4¢ $0 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 10h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 81¢ $16 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.72 · official $93.72 (match) · 13 history records