Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x24a8…dcb4 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$180 · open −$180
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$15
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$371
other 36% −$519
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 40% -3.4%
≤30d 22 -7.0% -15.8% 55% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 22 -7.0% -15.8% 55% 50% -8.3%
all 22 -7.0% -15.8% 55% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -8.3%
10% -23.9% 50% -17.1%
15% -31.2% 41% -25.1%
20% -38.0% 32% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$62 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage14d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Iraq 55¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $102 +$121 +119%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$9 +43%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$7 -35%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $401 −$398 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$40 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $153 +$52 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $136 +$65 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $131 +$8 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $152 1h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 49¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 45¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $3 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 42¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $13 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 8d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $203 9d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 77¢ $401 9d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $170 9d
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 9d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 11d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $10 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $205 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 74¢ $153 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $202 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $53 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $83 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.62 · official $14.62 (match) · 45 history records