Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24a6…f767 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$5
world 36% +$1
politics 18% +$7
sports 6% +$5
crypto 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 33% -9.1%
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 11% -9.2%
all 39 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 13% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 13% -7.9%
10% -24.3% 10% -16.8%
15% -31.6% 3% -24.8%
20% -38.3% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $26 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 03 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 01 $1 $0 +7%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $2 $0 -8%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $33 +$2 +7%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $7 +$1 +17%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $18 +$9 +52%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? Mar 03 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un Mar 03 $20 −$1 -7%
Alabama A&M vs. Alabama State Mar 03 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $48 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $55 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $32 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $19 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $13 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.12 · official $49.09 (match) · 158 history records