Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x24a5…5d07 sports 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,609 (+2%) realized −$4,655 · open +$10,264
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%120W / 125L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,304per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$644est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$31,087
other 29% −$7,222
world 9% −$7,765
culture 2% −$4,448
politics 1% −$32
finance 0% −$221
crypto 0% +$6
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.7% -20.1% 33% 33% -11.7%
≤30d 27 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 37% -11.8%
≤90d 68 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 49% -10.9%
all 245 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 44% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 44% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 40% -17.4%
15% -31.7% 33% -25.4%
20% -38.4% 29% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,190) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$944 vs −$905 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$14,775
Realized−$4,655
Unrealized+$10,264
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses120 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$644
Open positions7
Markets (closed)245 / 252
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,304
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 100¢ $685 $6,208 +$5,523 (+806%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 45¢ 100¢ $2,250 $4,998 +$2,748 (+122%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 48¢ 100¢ $960 $1,999 +$1,039 (+108%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 37¢ 100¢ $555 $1,492 +$938 (+169%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,637 −$2,600 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1,822 +$2,878 +158%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $1,233 +$867 +70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,980 −$1,940 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $567 −$560 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $514 −$500 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,401 +$5,689 +129%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,251 +$596 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,331 +$638 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,649 −$57 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5,117 −$1,046 -20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,383 −$2,340 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,877 −$160 -3%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $576 −$152 -26%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,119 −$961 -31%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,316 −$722 -17%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1,398 +$702 +50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1,591 −$1,589 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 10 $909 +$699 +77%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $989 −$2 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $554 −$546 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $506 +$323 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $303 +$172 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $310 +$239 +77%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $222 +$39 +17%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $260 −$66 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Apr 20 $208 −$205 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $214 +$39 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$5 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $179 +$42 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 17 $74 +$103 +140%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Apr 16 $198 +$100 +50%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $404 +$25 +6%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Apr 16 $200 +$146 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $145 +$72 +50%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 13 $130 +$30 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $71 +$28 +40%
Clippers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5 Apr 05 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Apr 05 $124 +$74 +60%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $150 −$26 -17%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Apr 03 $565 +$353 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 29¢ $84 40m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 29¢ $623 40m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $162 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $565 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $494 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $224 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $93 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $975 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,144 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,144 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,220 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $511 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,417 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $714 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $567 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1,266 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $514 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $15 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $84 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $659 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10,090 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,774.87 · official $14,774.87 (match) · 1348 history records