Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24a5…b3bb sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (289 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$11,461 (+11%) realized +$11,285 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%49W / 30L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,772per market
Trades / day288.8pace
Fees−$2,507est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$8,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$7,427
other 32% +$1,134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (289 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +82.2% +64.8% 58% 30% -7.9%
≤30d 79 +91.8% +73.5% 62% 29% -6.2%
≤90d 79 +91.8% +73.5% 62% 29% -6.2%
all 79 +91.8% +73.5% 62% 29% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover288.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.5% 29% -6.2%
10% +56.9% 19% -15.2%
15% ← realistic here +41.8% 14% -23.4%
20% +27.9% 13% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late +111% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
39.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$213 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$8,203
Realized+$11,285
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses49 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$2,507
Open positions6
Markets (closed)79 / 59
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$1,772
Trades / day288.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,650 $4,675 +$25 (+1%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,758 $1,757 −$1 (-0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 84¢ 86¢ $718 $743 +$25 (+3%)
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $350 $425 +$75 (+21%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $350 $350 +$0 (+0%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $201 $253 +$52 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 17 $39 +$64 +162%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $474 −$544 -115%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 17 $5 +$40 +804%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 17 $128 −$124 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 17 $11 +$24 +214%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $1,726 −$1,725 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 17 $500 −$458 -92%
Will a top 10 VRS team lose to a team ranked 11th or lower at BLAST Ri Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Navi qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs? Jun 17 $117 −$124 -106%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $6 +$64 +1070%
Will BetBoom qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs? Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 100 and 124 poin Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NRG Esports win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $406 −$221 -55%
Will Vitality make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? Jun 17 $107 −$136 -128%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 17 $1 +$70 +5433%
Will Natus Vincere win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Jun 17 $274 −$292 -107%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $214 −$193 -90%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 17 $0 +$20 +11305%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 17 $529 −$518 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 17 $59 −$49 -82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 17 $176 −$176 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 17 $52 −$128 -245%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $6,914 +$341 +5%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $173 +$27 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,406 +$30 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $1,260 +$90 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $810 +$60 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $438 +$35 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,800 +$77 +2%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $6,054 +$177 +3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $4,728 +$133 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,600 +$63 +4%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $176 +$38 +21%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $93 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,085 +$108 +5%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $44 +$13 +29%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,314 +$850 +37%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $795 +$184 +23%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $274 −$11 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,274 +$717 +17%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $131 +$13 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $760 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,308 +$266 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $520 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4,573 +$651 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 33m
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 84¢ $200 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 84¢ $276 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 83¢ $244 2h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $42 7h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $144 8h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $55 9h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $170 9h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 9h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $7 9h
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $30 10h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 10h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 12h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 15h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 16h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 17h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4,650 18h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 18h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $55 19h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 20h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 21h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $2,436 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1,314 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $80 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,203.05 · official $8,203.05 (match) · 3500 history records