Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24a5…ab7d
crypto · 1180 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$135 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$79 · open −$159
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$316
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses689 / 435
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions55
Markets (closed)1124 / 1180
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 55 History 1124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$218
14 days+$162
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 82¢ 23¢ $181 $51 −$130 (-72%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 25¢ 48¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+92%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? No 70¢ 58¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? No 76¢ 64¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 67¢ 64¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 48¢ 80¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+67%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? No 63¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 37¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 21¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 70¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+108%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 69¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 81¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+54%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 44¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 55¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 47¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 48¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$13 +301%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$6 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $16 −$12 -74%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $12 +$8 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$5 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +86%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $1 +$1 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $43 +$20 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +79%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$23 +76%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Arias/Ingildsen vs Forcano/Vervoort Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +77%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $12 −$8 -69%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Cuenin vs Baroni Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Cuenin vs. Baroni: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$170
sports 23% +$231
other 6% −$2
politics 5% −$136
world 2% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $3 3m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $3 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $5 16m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $16 22m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $7 27m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $4 35m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $19 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $2 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $2 38m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $2 46m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 18¢ $2 48m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 73¢ $18 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 54m
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Ding Cuts 2¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 65¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 65¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 59¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 59¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $8 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $7 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $5 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 48% +3.1%
≤30d 617 -0.8% -10.2% 69% 46% -4.7%
≤90d 617 -0.8% -10.2% 69% 46% -4.7%
all 1124 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 48% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 48% -8.3%
10% -19.1% 41% -17.1%
15% -27.0% 35% -25.1%
20% -34.1% 32% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.90 · official $315.52 (match) · 3500 history records