Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24a4…86da sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,370 (-5%) realized −$4,384 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%97W / 88L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$6
14 days+$20
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$4,052
economics 7% −$395
crypto 3% +$82
other 2% +$10
world 2% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.7% -29.1% 44% 44% -5.4%
≤30d 13 +3.2% -6.7% 54% 54% +6.6%
≤90d 14 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 50% +6.6%
all 185 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 37% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 37% -13.8%
10% -26.1% 30% -22.1%
15% -33.2% 25% -29.6%
20% -39.8% 17% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$153 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$4,384
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses97 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage168d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $167 $181 +$14 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $149 +$18 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $337 −$129 -38%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$10 -63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $392 −$97 -25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $347 +$46 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $263 +$84 +32%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$19 -91%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 −$19 -19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $261 +$119 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$22 +123%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $299 +$247 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 10 $720 −$720 -100%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 10 $792 +$5 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 10 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 10 $300 +$111 +37%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 10 $1,415 +$89 +6%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $1,715 $0 -0%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $1,585 +$331 +21%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $1,366 +$219 +16%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $847 +$518 +61%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Feb 07 $459 −$305 -66%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $500 +$194 +39%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 06 $500 −$188 -38%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $1,068 +$79 +7%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 06 $300 −$290 -97%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 06 $1,044 +$14 +1%
Wizards vs. Pistons Feb 06 $110 −$51 -46%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 05 $720 −$273 -38%
Thunder vs. Spurs Feb 05 $1,214 −$13 -1%
Celtics vs. Rockets Feb 05 $700 −$494 -70%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $250 +$365 +146%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 04 $1,938 −$129 -7%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 04 $500 +$285 +57%
Bulls vs. Bucks Feb 04 $100 −$23 -23%
76ers vs. Clippers Feb 03 $10 −$9 -87%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 03 $1,884 −$193 -10%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 03 $1,646 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 03 $50 −$49 -99%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Feb 02 $1,836 +$83 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 02 $1,831 +$6 +0%
Nets vs. Pistons Feb 02 $1,300 +$12 +1%
Jazz vs. Raptors Feb 02 $200 +$128 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 01 $1,700 +$57 +3%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $100 +$113 +112%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Feb 01 $606 +$48 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $168 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $201 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 10h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 21h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 45¢ $295 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $392 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $347 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $347 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $263 33h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 44h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 44h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $82 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $261 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $13 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $14 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $14 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 54¢ $299 25d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 90d
Grizzlies vs. Warriors BUY Grizzlies 90¢ $720 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.04 · official $182.67 (match) · 505 history records