Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24a4…4120 politics 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$715 (+0%) realized +$715 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%39W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,369per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$27
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$112
other 34% −$1
sports 18% +$618
world 2% −$4
economics 1% $0
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -2.9% -12.2% 7% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 90 +4.1% -5.8% 12% 9% -8.3%
all 160 +2.1% -7.7% 24% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 12% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 12% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 9% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,111) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$18 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$715
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses39 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,369
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $216 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $351 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $350 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,263 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,583 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $251 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,868 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,765 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,399 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,224 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,847 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,268 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,671 −$8 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $4,528 −$7 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,111 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,882 −$5 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $496 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $70 +$56 +79%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $363 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,529 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $411 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $411 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,933 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $365 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,363 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,626 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $45 +$58 +129%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $2,148 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $216 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $216 4h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 5h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 8h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $350 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $351 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $350 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $350 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $246 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $376 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $376 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $398 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $399 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $440 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $440 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $507 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $507 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $474 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $474 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $498 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $498 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $478 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $478 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $461 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $461 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.23 · official $160.23 (match) · 562 history records