Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24a1…7b51 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$623 (+14%) realized +$623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$498
14 days+$216
30 days+$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$271
other 28% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -72.6% -75.2% 11% 11% -48.9%
≤30d 48 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 33% +8.1%
≤90d 48 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 33% +8.1%
all 48 -11.6% -20.0% 35% 33% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 33% +8.1%
10% -27.7% 29% -2.2%
15% -34.7% 27% -11.7%
20% -41.1% 27% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$66 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage18d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $140 −$77 -55%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $97 −$97 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $314 +$211 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $196 −$140 -71%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $185 −$184 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $212 −$204 -96%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$48 -46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $217 +$492 +226%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 −$27 -52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$200 +400%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $100 +$150 +150%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $150 +$350 +233%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $201 −$200 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 −$28 -56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $532 +$76 +14%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $161 −$160 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 +$233 +233%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 +$152 +74%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$99 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $123 +$27 +22%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$8 -59%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $150 +$345 +230%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$5 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $102 +$114 +112%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$39 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $42 +$46 +111%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$59 +117%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $63 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $140 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $36 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $28 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $524 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 14¢ $56 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $314 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $196 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $8 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $8 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $19 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $150 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $60 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $0 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $46 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records