Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x249f…d9b5 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$56
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 32 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 32 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 0% -10.0%
all 32 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $607 −$6 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $233 −$8 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $32 −$4 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $484 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $110 −$10 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $527 −$7 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $55 −$8 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $484 −$7 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $88 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $253 −$7 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $264 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $110 −$10 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $560 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL No 97¢ $31 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $62 16m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $62 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $110 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $71 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $71 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $71 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $9 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $61 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $71 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $71 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $69 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $68 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 98¢ $71 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $71 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 98¢ $47 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $47 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 97¢ $33 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $46 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $18 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $65 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.71 · official $93.15 (match) · 244 history records