Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

24 0x249f…aa81 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 708d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$180 (-14%) realized −$130 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate18%2W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$104per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$21

7 days−$35

14 days−$35

30 days−$35

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-54.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-33.9%	-40.2%	0%	0%	-26.8%
≤30d	4	-33.9%	-40.2%	0%	0%	-26.8%
≤90d	4	-33.9%	-40.2%	0%	0%	-26.8%
all	11	-49.4%	-54.2%	18%	18%	-22.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.2%	18%	-22.1%
10%	-58.6%	18%	-29.6%
15%	-62.6%	18%	-36.4%
20%	-66.3%	9%	-42.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$131 vs −$51 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$130

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses2 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage708d

Avg bet$104

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$76	−$8	-11%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-11%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$82	−$12	-14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$14	−$14	-97%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 28	$6	−$6	-100%
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup	Aug 14	$58	−$58	-100%
Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?	Aug 08	$200	−$195	-97%
Trump's ear bandaged during RNC convention?	Jul 15	$147	−$147	-100%
Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros?	Jul 14	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?	Jul 14	$388	+$160	+41%
Will the match be a draw?	Jul 10	$200	+$102	+51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	50¢	$68	46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	15¢	$9	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$50	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$21	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	60¢	$25	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$82	6d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	140d
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup	BUY Atalanta	2¢	$2	672d
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup	BUY Atalanta	10¢	$10	672d
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup	BUY Atalanta	13¢	$13	672d
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup	BUY Atalanta	33¢	$33	672d
Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	678d
Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	678d
Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?	BUY Yes	15¢	$200	678d
Trump's ear bandaged during RNC convention?	BUY No	16¢	$59	702d
Trump's ear bandaged during RNC convention?	BUY No	15¢	$40	702d
Trump's ear bandaged during RNC convention?	BUY No	11¢	$48	702d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?	SELL Yes	99¢	$548	703d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?	BUY Yes	85¢	$213	703d
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?	BUY Yes	58¢	$175	706d
Will the match be a draw?	SELL No	100¢	$302	707d
Will the match be a draw?	BUY No	66¢	$200	707d
Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	708d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $4.53 · 35 history records