trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 11 | $13 | +$3 | +19% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Mar 11 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Mar 10 | $99 | −$98 | -99% |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Mar 07 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 07 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 11 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 02 | $1 | $0 | -19% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 01 | $22 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 01 | $2 | −$2 | -70% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 01 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? | Oct 01 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Sep 30 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? | Sep 30 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? | Sep 29 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Sep 29 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Sep 28 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 28 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 28 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 27 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Sep 27 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Sep 27 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Sep 26 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 26 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 26 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Sep 25 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +9.4% | -1.0% | 50% | 50% | -5.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +9.4% | -1.0% | 50% | 50% | -5.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +9.4% | -1.0% | 50% | 50% | -5.0% |
| all | 26 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 27% | 4% | -21.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.7% | 4% | -21.3% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 0% | -28.8% |
| 15% | -31.1% | 0% | -35.7% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 0% | -42.0% |