Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x249c…2783 crypto 331 markets active 2d ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$112 (+0%) realized −$445 · open +$557
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%144W / 186L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$778
7 days−$3,182
14 days−$3,618
30 days−$3,823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$7,466
politics 22% −$1,731
world 22% +$13,715
sports 6% −$3,999
other 2% −$1,583
culture 0% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -21.5% -28.9% 41% 37% -23.6%
≤30d 205 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 42% -18.3%
≤90d 208 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 42% -17.8%
all 330 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 42% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 42% -10.6%
10% -25.1% 39% -19.2%
15% -32.4% 36% -27.0%
20% -39.0% 33% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$292 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1,427
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$557
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses144 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage527d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 54¢ 88¢ $870 $1,427 +$557 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $276 −$276 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $267 −$266 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $430 −$409 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $212 +$188 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $263 −$261 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $166 −$120 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $185 −$184 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $216 +$142 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $109 +$76 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $317 +$300 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $97 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $145 +$139 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $256 +$39 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $848 −$848 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $324 −$324 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $174 +$159 +91%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $810 −$404 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $868 −$849 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $314 −$312 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $608 −$598 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $164 −$163 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $568 +$178 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $432 −$419 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $159 +$126 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $198 −$118 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $332 −$87 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $324 +$276 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $113 −$72 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $943 +$373 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $253 +$216 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $504 +$341 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $714 +$440 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $293 −$288 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $226 −$218 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $733 +$734 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $146 −$32 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $167 +$233 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $328 +$272 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $306 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $702 +$698 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $1,013 −$451 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $112 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $39 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $42 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 90¢ $223 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 91¢ $62 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $22 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $98 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 90¢ $268 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,426.92 · official $1,426.92 (match) · 3064 history records