Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2499…96e6 other 111 markets active 6d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate75%83W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$32
economics 16% −$4
crypto 11% +$1
other 7% +$10
world 0% +$8
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 20% -0.6%
≤30d 13 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 15% -3.3%
≤90d 48 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 6% -8.9%
all 110 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 12% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses83 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage234d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $10 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May May 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by April 30, 2026? May 15 $9 $0 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 18 $3 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $6 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Apr 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 09 $5 $0 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Marc Apr 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 09 $6 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Feb 01 $3 $0 -1%
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Feb 01 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 91¢ $8 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 90¢ $10 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? BUY No 96¢ $11 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 20d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 90¢ $6 32d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 BUY Yes 71¢ $6 32d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 BUY No 94¢ $6 32d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 32d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 32d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 32d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 32d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 98¢ $5 32d
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $5 32d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 48d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May BUY No 92¢ $6 48d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 48d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 48d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? BUY No 98¢ $6 48d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 59d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 59d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 59d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 59d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.22 (match) · 218 history records