Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2497…624b crypto 1297 markets active 6d ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (438 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$211 (+2%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%545W / 752L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day438.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (438 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -8.6% -17.3% 33% 31% -15.4%
≤30d 1297 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 34% -12.0%
≤90d 1297 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 34% -12.0%
all 1297 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover438.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 34% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -20.4%
15% -28.2% 21% -28.1%
20% -35.2% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses545 / 752
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1297 / 1297
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day438.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1297 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records