Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2496…ffdc other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$144 (+21%) realized +$143 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$75
sports 26% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% +14.6%
≤30d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% +14.6%
≤90d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% +14.6%
all 14 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 36% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 36% +14.6%
10% -24.2% 29% +3.6%
15% -31.6% 29% -6.4%
20% -38.3% 29% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$25 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$46 +223%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$173 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 54m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $116 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $182 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $98 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 91¢ $275 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.62 · official $20.62 (match) · 27 history records