Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2494…9405
crypto · 166 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$221 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$200 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses81 / 68
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)149 / 166
History coverage244d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 17 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 2 Scotland? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Over 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will AT&T (T) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$57 +1116%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$57 +1116%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 22 $109 −$107 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$28 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 22 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 22 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$9 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 22 $8 +$12 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 22 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$19 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 22 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 22 $71 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 21 $30 −$11 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 21 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 21 $30 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 21 $37 −$10 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$134
finance 16% −$201
sports 8% +$123
other 2% −$10
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 43m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 43m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 44m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 44m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 45m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 45m
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 49m
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 49m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 54m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $5 54m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 54m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 55m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $21 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 13¢ $5 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 14h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $10 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 16¢ $10 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $10 37h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 8¢ $5 37h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $10 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +182.3% +155.4% 43% 43% +99.5%
≤30d 14 +182.3% +155.4% 43% 43% +99.5%
≤90d 62 +37.8% +24.7% 45% 44% -6.8%
all 149 +16.3% +5.2% 54% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 44% -17.6%
10% -4.8% 40% -25.5%
15% -14.0% 36% -32.7%
20% -22.5% 32% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.50 · official $110.50 (match) · 335 history records