Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2494…6d7a crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$368 (-6%) realized −$368 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%77W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -9.7% -18.3% 71% 43% -17.8%
≤30d 108 -9.7% -18.3% 71% 43% -17.8%
≤90d 108 -9.7% -18.3% 71% 43% -17.8%
all 108 -9.7% -18.3% 71% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 43% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 17% -25.6%
15% -33.2% 9% -32.8%
20% -39.8% 6% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$29 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses77 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage7d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$37 +119%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $72 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $72 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $152 −$151 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $157 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$17 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $60 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $72 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $70 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records