Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x2493…9876 world 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%50W / 79L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days+$3
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$34
politics 19% +$29
other 16% −$3
sports 11% +$32
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 32 -1.6% -10.9% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 93 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 1% -9.8%
all 129 +4.2% -5.7% 39% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 3% -9.3%
10% -14.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 2% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses50 / 79
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage471d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $135 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $124 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $162 −$7 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $131 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $265 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $206 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $436 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $131 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $276 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $400 +$11 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $483 −$35 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $468 −$2 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $127 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $141 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $213 −$7 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $8 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $119 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $135 +$10 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $177 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $321 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $160 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $169 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $147 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $186 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $440 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $128 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $210 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $3 $0 -6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $171 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $163 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $167 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $8 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $135 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $135 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $95 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $124 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $97 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $91 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $49 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $87 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $113 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $51 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $131 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $131 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $130 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $130 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $131 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.60 · official $34.42 (match) · 608 history records