Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
24 0x2492…29dd other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$797 (+67%) realized +$793 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$310
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$4
sports 43% +$783
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +188.4% +160.9% 100% 100% +160.9%
≤90d 9 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 33% +114.3%
all 13 +36.4% +23.5% 100% 23% +103.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 23% +103.1%
10% +11.6% 23% +83.7%
15% +0.9% 23% +65.9%
20% -9.0% 23% +49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +137% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +67% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized+$793
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage169d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $548 $552 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $164 +$310 +188%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $165 +$231 +140%
Hornets vs. Magic May 16 $174 +$242 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January Feb 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $55 on the final trading day of January 2 Feb 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 06 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.01 · official $552.01 (match) · 27 history records