Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
24 0x248f…6f05 economics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 57% +$6
other 16% +$2
politics 11% −$11
world 9% −$1
crypto 6% +$6
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -12.6% -21.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 14% -9.4%
10% -20.3% 10% -18.1%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage609d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 11 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $526 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $656 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 22 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 30 $195 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 19 $192 +$3 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 17 $180 +$11 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $198 −$19 -10%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Nov 20 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on November 14? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 11 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 04 $89 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Oct 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Sep 30 $10 +$5 +47%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Sep 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Mar 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Who will win women? Oct 24 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $169 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $170 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $178 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $179 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $179 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $179 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $4 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $4 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $178 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $179 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $179 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $179 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $149 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $149 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $149 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $149 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $179 32d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $179 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $176 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $176 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $178 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $178 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $169 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $169 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $176 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $176 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $99 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $99 33d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 45d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records