Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x248e…6c27 sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$453 (+6%) realized +$216 · open +$237
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%30W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$136
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$534
sports 15% +$248
politics 14% +$847
finance 13% +$63
other 6% −$126
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 53% -26.6%
≤30d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 55% -23.3%
≤90d 46 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 43% -6.6%
all 64 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 41% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 41% -6.0%
10% -21.7% 28% -15.0%
15% -29.3% 20% -23.2%
20% -36.2% 12% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$45 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses30 / 34
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions9
Markets (closed)64 / 73
History coverage124d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $29 +$31 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$14 -39%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B Jun 21 $157 −$115 -73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $16 −$7 -47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $46 +$14 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $84 −$83 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $36 +$14 +37%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $58 +$32 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 +$4 +95%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $88 +$12 +14%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $63 +$22 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $199 −$58 -29%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election May 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? May 01 $34 −$12 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 26 $147 +$7 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 14 $44 −$6 -14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $85 −$37 -43%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? Apr 13 $50 +$33 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 13 $9 −$5 -50%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 12 $37 −$17 -45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 09 $59 +$20 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 09 $69 +$60 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 08 $141 +$42 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $29 −$7 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 02 $178 −$12 -7%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Apr 01 $1,358 +$224 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $302 +$52 +17%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $312 +$18 +6%
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $84 +$15 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 29 $69 −$6 -9%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 28 $43 −$4 -9%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Mar 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Juliano Floss be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Bras Mar 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $237 −$85 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 23 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Mar 23 $11 −$9 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $37 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 4h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? BUY Yes $2 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes $6 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 44h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B SELL Yes 10¢ $42 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 42¢ $8 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $16 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $44 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 76¢ $46 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $44 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $9 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $31 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 73¢ $36 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $58 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $12 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $7 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $4 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 85¢ $85 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $63 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $40 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.52 · official $837.52 (match) · 291 history records