Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x248d…efd4 crypto 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%97W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$5
other 18% −$1
tech 7% +$4
economics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 107 -3.5% -12.7% 91% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -28.7% 3% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses97 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage542d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 4? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Apr 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 08 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 December 29-January 4? Jan 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? Jan 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 Jan 04 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 04 $34 +$1 +2%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 04 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 12 $19 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 December 1-7? Dec 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 Dec 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16? Dec 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 15 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Nov 15 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $15 +$1 +8%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14? Sep 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $280 September 8–14? Sep 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.90 in September? Sep 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Sep 01 $13 +$3 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 4? Sep 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on August 4? Sep 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 03 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27? Jul 10 $6 $0 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $116 16d
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $115 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $3 42d
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $120 61d
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $123 130d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 99¢ $73 149d
Will Solana reach $150 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $21 164d
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 164d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $31 164d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 164d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 188d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 197d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 BUY No 99¢ $16 197d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $17 197d
Will Solana reach $180 December 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $18 197d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $34 197d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $13 215d
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 215d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16? BUY No 100¢ $17 215d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 215d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $13 226d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 99¢ $16 226d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 95¢ $12 226d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 226d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 226d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 93¢ $15 246d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 97¢ $16 246d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 246d
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.89 · official $122.89 (match) · 223 history records