Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x248b…68d3 crypto 754 markets active 5d ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%582W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day68.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$64
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -15.7% -23.7% 64% 25% -18.2%
≤30d 754 -3.1% -12.3% 77% 23% -11.1%
≤90d 754 -3.1% -12.3% 77% 23% -11.1%
all 754 -3.1% -12.3% 77% 23% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 23% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 15% -19.6%
15% -28.4% 12% -27.4%
20% -35.4% 8% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses582 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)754 / 754
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 754 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1665 history records