Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x2487…56bb crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized −$6 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day38.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$66
other 9% +$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 53% +0.0%
≤30d 32 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 53% +0.0%
≤90d 32 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 53% +0.0%
all 32 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 53% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 53% +0.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 41% -9.5%
15% -29.8% 28% -18.3%
20% -36.7% 16% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day38.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$11 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $44 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $53 +$11 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $76 +$16 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +49%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$4 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$3 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $9 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $33 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $33 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $48 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $20 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $22 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $17 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.30 · official $21.30 (match) · 70 history records