Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x2485…f94a sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%15W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$4
other 10% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 15 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 0% -8.9%
10% -15.9% 0% -17.6%
15% -24.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$997
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses15 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage146d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 100¢ 100¢ $996 $996 +$0 (+0%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier OpTic Texas 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $965 +$1 +0%
Spread: RNK Veres Rivne (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Nets vs. Celtics Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? Feb 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-01-28? Feb 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? Feb 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-07? Feb 27 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs New Growth (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Clos Jan 27 $111 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Clippers Jan 26 $300 +$1 +0%
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies Jan 26 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $297 +$10 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 100¢ $996 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $465 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 96¢ $1 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $500 7h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 97¢ $1 7h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY OpTic Texas 88¢ $1 8h
Nets vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 91¢ $1 112d
Spread: RNK Veres Rivne (-2.5) BUY FK Shakhtar Donetsk 98¢ $1 112d
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 96¢ $1 144d
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 96¢ $1 144d
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 98¢ $1 144d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 94¢ $1 144d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs New Growth (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Clos BUY GamerLegion 100¢ $111 144d
Nets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $300 145d
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies BUY Washington Huskies 100¢ $101 145d
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies BUY Washington Huskies 100¢ $100 145d
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies BUY Washington Huskies 99¢ $100 145d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? BUY No 97¢ $95 145d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? BUY No 97¢ $102 145d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? BUY No 97¢ $100 145d
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-01-25? BUY No 97¢ $1 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $997.48 · official $997.48 (match) · 37 history records