Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2484…7d52 other 60 markets active 5h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 13% −$7
other 6% −$31
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$5
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 50 -8.3% -17.0% 22% 10% -11.0%
all 59 -7.1% -15.9% 24% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 8% -9.8%
10% -24.0% 8% -18.4%
15% -31.3% 7% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage552d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $51 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $10 +$8 +75%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $15 +$13 +89%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Apr 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $29 +$9 +32%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 27 $22 +$24 +108%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $42 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 19h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 23h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 30h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 217 history records