Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2483…6870 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$13
politics 21% −$12
other 4% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$7
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +8.5% -1.9% 25% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 44 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 14% -9.9%
all 57 -0.6% -10.0% 25% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 11% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 11% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 11% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage605d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 06 $22 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $72 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $8 +$8 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $73 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 +$6 +83%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$9 +105%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) Mar 24 $23 +$21 +92%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $89 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $13,518 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $22 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $12 27d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $72 29d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $72 29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $8 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.90 · official $50.90 (match) · 277 history records