Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2482…67b1
culture · 177 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$541 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$344 · open +$198
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,428
Realized+$344
Unrealized+$198
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses67 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)163 / 177
History coverage102d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 14 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days+$33
14 days+$117
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 31¢ 86¢ $126 $346 +$220 (+175%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 83¢ 87¢ $166 $174 +$8 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $169 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $161 $160 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $111 $106 −$6 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $106 $96 −$10 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $91 $78 −$12 (-14%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $41 $50 +$9 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $83 −$77 -93%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 09 $257 +$188 +73%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $25 −$7 -28%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 07 $51 −$45 -90%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 06 $62 +$26 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $8 −$4 -55%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 05 $166 +$31 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $48 +$31 +64%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $1,165 +$50 +4%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -33%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $336 +$33 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 29 $26 −$10 -38%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $453 +$45 +10%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m May 28 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $32 +$4 +13%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $110 −$55 -50%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $7 −$5 -76%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 26 $601 −$210 -35%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? May 24 $24 −$23 -94%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m? May 22 $73 +$18 +25%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 22 $6 −$2 -40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $11 +$2 +14%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 17 $387 +$68 +18%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 16 $62 +$5 +8%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 16 $511 +$128 +25%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? May 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? May 14 $11 −$4 -33%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m? May 14 $6 −$5 -83%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m? May 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m? May 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? May 14 $9 −$6 -72%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 12 $9 +$44 +478%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $46 +$27 +57%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $287 +$43 +15%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 11 $245 +$51 +21%
Will "Michael" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 10 $3 +$5 +179%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and May 10 $3 −$3 -89%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 10 $40 −$21 -53%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the highest grossing movie of this w May 09 $47 +$11 +24%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 09 $229 +$7 +3%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 08 $128 +$18 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 61% +$922
other 17% −$585
finance 11% +$171
world 10% +$15
crypto 1% +$29
sports 0% +$10
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$18
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 8h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 27¢ $27 18h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 34¢ $34 18h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 88¢ $88 22h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 37¢ $23 22h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 37¢ $44 23h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 37¢ $8 23h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 78¢ $78 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $113 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $78 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $44 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 32h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $63 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -57.5% -61.5% 17% 17% -1.0%
≤30d 33 -27.9% -34.7% 42% 27% -8.6%
≤90d 151 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 29% -7.2%
all 163 -10.1% -18.7% 41% 29% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 29% -7.9%
10% -26.5% 19% -16.7%
15% -33.6% 13% -24.7%
20% -40.1% 10% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.40 · official $1,428.50 (match) · 1115 history records