Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2480…3c00 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,673 (-22%) realized −$2,136 · open −$537
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1,075now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$206
14 days−$1,518
30 days−$1,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$2,649
sports 4% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 33% +2.8%
≤30d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 53% 27% -30.1%
≤90d 23 -27.1% -34.1% 43% 17% -31.9%
all 29 -21.1% -28.7% 45% 21% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 21% -30.2%
10% -35.5% 7% -36.8%
15% -41.7% 3% -42.9%
20% -47.4% 0% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$181 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,075
Realized−$2,136
Unrealized−$537
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage170d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $454 $470 +$16 (+3%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 92¢ 42¢ $1,030 $468 −$562 (-55%)
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $23 $33 +$10 (+44%)
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 20¢ 30¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $33 $20 −$13 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 27 $5 −$1 -20%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 27 $71 −$3 -4%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Jun 25 $135 +$26 +19%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 25 $1,271 +$208 +16%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $955 +$144 +15%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,013 −$1,998 -99%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 17 $1,049 +$54 +5%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 16 $1,027 +$78 +8%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $139 −$3 -2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 12 $4 −$1 -27%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $462 −$126 -27%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $14 +$3 +22%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 25 $737 −$415 -56%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 24 $28 −$28 -99%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 20 $438 +$36 +8%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 14 $205 −$2 -1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 07 $136 −$134 -99%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $178 +$18 +10%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 29 $180 +$5 +3%
Megaquake by March 31? Mar 29 $2 −$1 -32%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 29 $311 −$97 -31%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 26 $140 +$38 +27%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 04 $95 +$43 +45%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 26 $94 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 21¢ $54 1h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY No 23¢ $2 1h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY No 20¢ $17 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $437 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $473 24h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 67¢ $4 24h
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 40¢ $2 24h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 40¢ $2 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $454 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $453 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $44 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $229 37h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 95¢ $5 41h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 95¢ $5 41h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 82¢ $230 41h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $794 41h
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 42h
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 42h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 72¢ $4 43h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 88¢ $5 43h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 90¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,074.96 · official $1,074.96 (match) · 314 history records