Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x247d…dedc crypto 72 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-13%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$20
other 4% −$5
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.3% -20.6% 53% 44% -14.9%
≤30d 71 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 45% -26.8%
≤90d 71 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 45% -26.8%
all 71 -15.1% -23.2% 51% 45% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 45% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 34% -33.8%
15% -37.2% 25% -40.2%
20% -43.4% 10% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.75 (match) · 198 history records