Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2470…9583 politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$18
politics 38% −$15
sports 8% +$8
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage119d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $272 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $411 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $211 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $259 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $235 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $410 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 5h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 5h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 11h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 23h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 26h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 33h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 35h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 35h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 38h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 11d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $237 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $180 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $181 26d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 26d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $212 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $212 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $179 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 403 history records