Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x246e…9556 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,452 (-9%) realized −$2,448 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,302per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,573
sports 28% −$2,858
crypto 20% +$1,566
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 35% -19.1%
≤30d 20 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 35% -19.1%
≤90d 20 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 35% -19.1%
all 20 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 35% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 35% -19.1%
10% -47.9% 30% -26.9%
15% ← realistic here -53.0% 20% -33.9%
20% -57.6% 20% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,921) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,021 vs −$770 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$2,448
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,302
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $322 $318 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $637 +$362 +57%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $164 −$160 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $370 −$360 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,921 +$1,132 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,265 −$2,837 -87%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,020 −$438 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,277 −$1,031 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $347 −$308 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $310 −$140 -45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,070 +$1,926 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,840 +$435 +24%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $971 +$191 +20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $832 −$500 -60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $795 −$634 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,577 +$1,566 +28%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,181 −$1,174 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,843 −$1,825 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1,995 +$1,535 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $327 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $637 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $370 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,053 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $608 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $606 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $606 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $428 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $598 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,667 46h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 17¢ $252 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 21¢ $191 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $49 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $49 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,020 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $246 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 4¢ $39 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $170 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $98 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $310 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $274 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $347 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.50 · official $318.50 (match) · 94 history records