Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x246e…6045 world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
other 34% −$9
sports 18% +$5
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 +24.4% +12.6% 39% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 42 +18.5% +7.2% 40% 7% -9.5%
all 86 +6.6% -3.6% 36% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -12.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -21.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -28.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage479d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $154 $156 +$2 (+1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 −$4 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $38 +$3 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $155 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$4 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 −$3 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $141 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $21 −$3 -15%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $150 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $157 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $137 +$9 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $361 −$1 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $136 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $168 +$3 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $144 +$2 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $131 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $132 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $130 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $358 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $242 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $315 −$10 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $77 −$8 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $144 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $12 +$4 +30%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $342 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1,053 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $175 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,158 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $363 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,047 +$1 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $24 $0 +0%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $16 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 02 $8 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $154 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $41 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $147 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $155 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $153 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $153 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $139 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $139 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $73 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $73 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $135 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.01 · official $156.00 (match) · 279 history records