Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x246c…8107 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,116 (-31%) realized −$1,115 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$230
crypto 29% −$388
other 23% −$371
world 10% −$85
economics 4% −$127
politics 3% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 2 -54.0% -58.3% 0% 0% -44.5%
≤90d 4 -42.6% -48.1% 25% 25% -24.5%
all 51 -54.7% -59.0% 20% 20% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 20% -42.4%
10% -62.9% 18% -47.9%
15% -66.5% 12% -53.0%
20% -69.8% 6% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$43 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$1,115
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage585d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $199 −$16 -8%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $200 +$75 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 20 $110 −$91 -83%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 01 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $401 −$351 -88%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $110 −$65 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $80 +$131 +163%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $90 +$43 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $60 +$221 +368%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $120 −$74 -62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $41 −$31 -76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $184 −$29 -16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $210 −$69 -33%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 17 $30 −$30 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Sep 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 6? Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Jun 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 08 $50 −$32 -64%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? May 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 08 $70 −$54 -77%
Trump tariff on EU alcohol before May? May 08 $100 +$71 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 13m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 13m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 53¢ $184 14m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $199 1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 9d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $125 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $150 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $200 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 117d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 121d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $10 122d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 SELL Yes 12¢ $12 122d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 SELL Yes 15¢ $14 122d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 SELL Yes 13¢ $13 122d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 122d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY Yes 10¢ $10 123d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY Yes 11¢ $10 123d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY Yes 10¢ $10 123d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 138d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 138d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $100 138d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $50 140d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $39 140d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $30 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.49 · official $178.49 (match) · 141 history records