Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x246b…1196
other · 218 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
+$10,254 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,538 · open +$11,503
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33,198
Realized−$1,538
Unrealized+$11,503
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses173 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)215 / 218
History coverage284d
Avg bet$853
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 3 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,896
14 days−$89
30 days+$1,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 52¢ 84¢ $16,219 $26,195 +$9,976 (+62%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 38¢ 60¢ $3,286 $5,158 +$1,872 (+57%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 73¢ 62¢ $2,190 $1,845 −$345 (-16%)
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1,301 $0 −$1,301 (-100%)
Chirayu Rana sued? No 17¢ 0¢ $913 $0 −$913 (-100%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? No 34¢ 0¢ $2,984 $0 −$2,984 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3,154 −$3,149 -100%
Chirayu Rana divorced? Jun 09 $113 −$102 -91%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $83 +$13 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $730 +$267 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $513 +$76 +15%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $3,983 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,814 +$2,169 +120%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? May 31 $184 +$3 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,279 +$635 +28%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? May 28 $883 +$62 +7%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 28 $316 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $5,701 +$2,150 +38%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 26 $1,491 +$64 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 25 $740 +$33 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 24 $2,176 +$301 +14%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $435 +$55 +13%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $874 +$126 +14%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 19 $440 +$44 +10%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 19 $1,317 −$1,298 -99%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,237 +$202 +16%
Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 13 $1,346 +$55 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $3,519 +$469 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 12 $670 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election May 06 $289 +$1,222 +423%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $1,532 +$218 +14%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 03 $944 −$913 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30? May 01 $1,282 +$277 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $2,180 +$841 +39%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 30 $3,310 +$1,081 +33%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $1,442 +$334 +23%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $2,676 +$93 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 29 $1,901 +$1,085 +57%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1,125 +$119 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $1,811 +$185 +10%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Apr 28 $384 −$187 -49%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 27 $2,211 −$2,211 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 27 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 26 $1,841 −$1,841 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 26 $1,748 +$262 +15%
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? Apr 15 $124 +$8 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 07 $341 +$26 +8%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026? Apr 07 $2,133 +$70 +3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 07 $57 +$35 +61%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026? Apr 06 $266 −$208 -78%
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Apr 05 $168 +$8 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,806 +$394 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $196 +$80 +41%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Apr 01 $1,684 +$112 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$11,398
other 38% −$9,678
politics 9% +$4,127
economics 5% +$532
sports 4% +$961
finance 1% +$337
crypto 1% +$2,197
tech 1% +$24
culture 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 1¢ $5 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $65 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $57 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $17 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $5 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $25 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $10 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $6 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 19¢ $8 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 19¢ $2 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 23¢ $115 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 23¢ $115 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 26¢ $260 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 28¢ $125 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 28¢ $15 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 31¢ $85 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $900 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $6 3d
Chirayu Rana divorced? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 26¢ $3 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 26¢ $18 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 26¢ $70 3d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 42¢ $96 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 30¢ $238 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 30¢ $9 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 30¢ $2 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 30¢ $4 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 30¢ $4 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 36¢ $138 3d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 41¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.8% -31.9% 60% 60% -65.4%
≤30d 21 +2.2% -7.5% 76% 48% -3.7%
≤90d 60 +2.0% -7.8% 77% 40% -7.1%
all 215 +3.1% -6.7% 80% 37% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 37% -10.3%
10% -15.6% 17% -18.9%
15% -23.8% 11% -26.7%
20% -31.2% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,197.62 · official $33,197.62 (match) · 2489 history records