Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x246a…d909 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-6%) realized −$6 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% −$25
other 22% −$158
finance 19% +$7
sports 15% −$3
world 14% +$17
economics 5% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +117.6% +96.9% 100% 100% +83.0%
≤30d 3 +62.5% +47.1% 67% 67% +15.0%
≤90d 12 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 50% -16.8%
all 12 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 50% -16.8%
10% -14.1% 42% -24.7%
15% -22.4% 42% -32.0%
20% -30.0% 33% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$53 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage67d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 12¢ $75 $20 −$55 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$47 +185%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $66 −$32 -48%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$89 -88%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? Apr 30 $51 +$30 +58%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 27 $150 +$17 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 22 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 21 $150 −$80 -53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $100 +$55 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $40 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $66 19d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes $12 40d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 40d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 46d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? SELL Yes 97¢ $81 49d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 42¢ $167 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 38¢ $150 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? SELL No 21¢ $65 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? BUY No 32¢ $100 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? SELL Yes 71¢ $142 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL Yes $70 59d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 60d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 13¢ $150 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? SELL Yes 88¢ $155 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.06 · official $20.06 (match) · 26 history records