Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2469…3d4c
other · 4 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$2
sports 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 17h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 17h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 33% -29.5%
≤30d 3 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 33% -29.5%
≤90d 3 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 33% -29.5%
all 3 -22.4% -29.8% 33% 33% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 33% -29.5%
10% -36.5% 33% -36.2%
15% -42.6% 33% -42.4%
20% -48.2% 0% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.82 · official $2.82 (match) · 6 history records