Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
24 0x2468…cad2 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$814 (+19%) realized +$1,300 · open −$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$516
crypto 27% +$797
sports 4% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% +35.4%
≤30d 10 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% +35.4%
≤90d 10 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% +35.4%
all 10 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% +35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 50% +35.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 40% +22.4%
15% -39.1% 40% +10.6%
20% -45.1% 40% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$56 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,614
Realized+$1,300
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 42¢ $1,700 $1,197 −$503 (-30%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $100 $232 +$132 (+132%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $300 $185 −$115 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,139 +$797 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $174 −$118 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$53 +70%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $126 +$78 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $137 +$150 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 31m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 32m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $47 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $707 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,936 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $50 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $253 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,613.97 · official $1,604.71 (match) · 43 history records