Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2467…2650 weather 365 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,260 (+2%) realized +$1,262 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate82%299W / 66L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day72.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$3
14 days+$231
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$660
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -4.9% -14.0% 79% 15% -9.6%
≤30d 260 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 18% -8.9%
≤90d 365 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 18% -8.6%
all 365 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 18% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 18% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 7% -17.4%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$38 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$1,262
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses299 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$179
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 95¢ 94¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on May 1? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $339 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $196 +$23 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $117 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$91 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $243 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $168 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $253 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $270 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $190 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $164 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $294 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $314 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $410 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $121 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $255 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $267 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $171 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $554 +$40 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $76 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $77 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $76 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $171 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $21 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $67 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $50 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $11 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $51 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.21 · official $296.91 (match) · 3500 history records