Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x2465…5d84 sports 729 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$636 (-2%) realized −$634 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%507W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$334est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$248
14 days−$73
30 days−$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$902
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 75% -4.3%
≤30d 524 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 66% -12.1%
≤90d 725 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 70% -11.6%
all 725 +0.2% -9.4% 70% 70% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 70% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 56% -20.1%
15% -26.0% 4% -27.8%
20% -33.2% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$634
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses507 / 218
Est. fees paid−$334
Open positions4
Markets (closed)725 / 729
History coverage49d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears KT Wiz 76¢ 98¢ $46 $59 +$13 (+28%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 75¢ 75¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 79¢ 68¢ $47 $40 −$7 (-14%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 79¢ 64¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $47 +$15 +32%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $47 −$17 -36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $53 +$13 +25%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $46 +$16 +34%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $46 +$16 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $47 +$15 +32%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $46 −$40 -87%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $47 +$14 +31%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $47 +$10 +21%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $46 +$15 +32%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $47 +$12 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $47 −$31 -66%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $54 +$14 +26%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $54 +$12 +22%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $54 +$15 +27%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $54 +$12 +22%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $54 +$15 +28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $54 +$12 +21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $54 +$18 +32%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $54 +$13 +25%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $54 +$18 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $54 −$40 -74%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $54 +$12 +21%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $54 +$13 +24%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $54 +$15 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $54 +$15 +28%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $54 +$11 +21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $54 +$15 +28%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $54 +$15 +28%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $52 +$18 +33%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $53 +$13 +24%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $53 +$12 +23%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $52 +$18 +34%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $53 −$17 -33%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $53 −$35 -65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $53 −$34 -65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $53 +$17 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $53 −$46 -87%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $53 +$16 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $38 +$20 +52%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $38 +$11 +28%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $38 +$11 +27%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $38 −$33 -88%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $33 −$7 -21%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $38 +$10 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $38 +$11 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $39 +$12 +32%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $39 −$17 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $39 −$22 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 76¢ $17 19m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 76¢ $4 20m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 76¢ $7 20m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 76¢ $7 20m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 76¢ $11 20m
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 79¢ $47 29m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 79¢ $47 49m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 76¢ $4 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 75¢ $43 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 55¢ $15 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 50¢ $15 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 74¢ $46 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $47 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $6 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 81¢ $47 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 10¢ $6 8h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 75¢ $47 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 75¢ $46 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 29¢ $8 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 29¢ $8 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 82¢ $47 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 74¢ $46 10h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 76¢ $47 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 75¢ $47 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $4 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $16 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $4 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $4 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $19 11h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 82¢ $47 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.85 · official $185.69 (match) · 2246 history records