Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x2463…b83e crypto 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$713 (+5%) realized +$713 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate84%155W / 29L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$948
14 days+$874
30 days+$874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$870
sports 16% −$265
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +8.1% -2.2% 87% 64% -1.1%
≤30d 158 +6.5% -3.6% 87% 58% -3.0%
≤90d 184 +3.1% -6.7% 84% 51% -5.7%
all 184 +3.1% -6.7% 84% 51% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 51% -5.7%
10% -15.7% 22% -14.7%
15% -23.8% 8% -23.0%
20% -31.3% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$45 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses155 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage80d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$27 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $114 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $96 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $81 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $81 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $87 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $81 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $111 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $122 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $80 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records