Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2463…e21b politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64,875 (+104%) realized +$64,879 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,692per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% +$64,813
other 4% −$170
sports 1% +$272
crypto 0% −$53
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 43% -19.2%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 43% -19.2%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 43% -19.2%
all 36 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 36% +85.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 36% +85.0%
10% -18.7% 36% +67.3%
15% -26.6% 28% +51.1%
20% -33.8% 25% +36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +104% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -44% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,760 vs −$81 · ×58.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.38 per $1 lost it wins $37.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized+$64,879
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage608d
Avg bet$1,692
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $312 +$90 +29%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$164 -33%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points? Jan 14 $650 +$4,350 +669%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 12 $3,888 +$10,250 +264%
Will Trump win 7 swing states? Nov 12 $6,016 +$19,488 +324%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 06 $1,140 +$260 +23%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $46,677 +$31,375 +67%
Trump wins a solid blue state? Nov 04 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Trump say "hell" 10 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1 Nov 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Nevada rally on Oct 31? Nov 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin"during New Mexico rally on October Nov 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Kamala" 30 or more times during the Joe Rogan podca Oct 31 $16 −$13 -79%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Rapist" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Oct 3 Oct 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "tax" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30 Oct 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during Pennsylvania rally on October 2 Oct 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump say "Rogan" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oc Oct 31 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30 Oct 31 $52 +$52 +100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct Oct 30 $75 +$42 +56%
Will Trump say "Nazi" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 30 $200 +$200 +100%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump say "garbage can" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $200 +$80 +40%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Georgia rally on Octobe Oct 29 $500 +$168 +34%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31? Oct 28 $5 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $154 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $184 12h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $102 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $61 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 34h
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,393 586d
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 586d
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,140 586d
Will Trump win 7 swing states? SELL Yes 80¢ $7,951 586d
Will Trump win 7 swing states? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 586d
Will Trump win 7 swing states? SELL Yes 80¢ $66 587d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 58¢ $650 587d
Will Trump win 7 swing states? SELL Yes 66¢ $657 587d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 92¢ $177 587d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 88¢ $177 587d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 17¢ $169 587d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 587d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 587d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 17¢ $264 587d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 587d
Will Trump win 7 swing states? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 588d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.27 · official $496.27 (match) · 201 history records