Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2462…7bec sports 1692 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1662W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$124
weather 19% −$34
other 17% −$87
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 196 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1387 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.9%
all 1691 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1662 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1691 / 1692
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lucas Herbert finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.00? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 29h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $50 34h
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $50 36h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Lucas Herbert finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $50 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 4d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Evictix 100¢ $50 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 3500 history records